The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence™ for Q4 2025 offered a nuanced, cautiously optimistic picture of the global economic outlook. The overall index registered 48, a one-point dip from 49 in Q3. A reading below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses, signaling continued caution among leaders of large firms.
However, beneath the headline number, a divergence in sentiment emerges. CEOs' assessments of current economic conditions remained slightly negative, but their views on conditions in their own industries actually improved in Q4: 29% said industry conditions were better than six months ago, up from 18% in Q3. This suggests that while geopolitical instability and broader market headwinds persist, many firms are navigating sector-specific challenges effectively.
The primary anxieties for the next 12-18 months center on geopolitical instability and cyber risks, closely followed by the transformative force of AI and innovation. Despite these concerns, there is a moderate uptick in strategic investment planning. The share of CEOs expecting to increase capital spending rose strongly to 22% in Q4 from 15% in Q3. Furthermore, more CEOs plan to expand their workforce (32%) than reduce it (29%), a positive sign for job growth. The data reveals a strategic pivot: while wary of the external environment, CEOs are investing aggressively in their core business and talent to defend margins and capture the emerging value from AI.